Nov 19, 2018
Nov 19, 2018
Since the pacificpelican2 account started publishing predictive ML Scores for Bitcoin (BTC) price based on historic data, the code has been tweaked a few times to make the algorithm both more responsive to recent movements and aware of a larger data set.
When pacificpelican2 started last month it included an
ML Score where a value less than 0.5 anticipates a price decline while greater than 0.5 expects an increase in the Bitcoin price. (Of course these are just automated predictions and can be innaccurate.) But now, the tweets also include information about the recent (more or less current) Bitcoin price, the previous Bitcoin price recorded (typically from an hour ago), and information about how the ML Score and Bitcoin price have changed (
Δ) since the last time they were recorded, as you can see below:
Oct 23, 2018
The Fowl Five Index of cryptos has seen a large decline in the last few days after a period of relative stability as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and many other cryptocurrencies fell in concert while US equity markets continue to fall as well.
Bitcoin was at lows for 2018.
Sep 13, 2018
Sep 11, 2018
Jul 31, 2018
I designed a machine learning algorithm that analyzes a series of hourly Bitcoin prices and then creates a "score" for predicting the next hour somewhere between 0 and 1 (the higher the score, the more likely that the price will be higher in one hour).
A version of this tool is
available on the web; however (as that site notes) it is stuck training on older data.
On my computer, I have new data continuously being pulled in from the web (every hour, when the system is running anyway). So it is able to create a new score every hour. Now I have created a Twitter account that posts the hourly score.
This is an example of one of the tweets on this account:
Now predicting the future is an uncertain task ("always in motion is the future") and these predictions may be inaccurate. This is research data right now and I would be hesitant to use it for production purposes.
Jul 01, 2018
The Fowl Five Index of Cryptos moved up a little for the month of July as Bitcoin and other major cryptos recovered slightly from the lows of June. Uncertainty still lingers in the market as the last few days have seen most cryptos giving back a bit of the recent gains.
Jun 03, 2018
This chart (especially in the context of the performance of recent months) indicates the very low levels that the Fowl Five Index of cryptos fell to as an across-the-board June rout on cryptocurrency valuations saw Bitcoin, Ethereum and many others fall to lows for 2018.
May 11, 2018
Not much has changed as May has come and gone and the cryptocurrency markets have traded sideways and downwards again. The benchmark Fowl Five Index of Cryptos (the formula for which is now available as an NPM module) went down from around 1185 to the low 1000s as the month went on.
Apr 25, 2018
The major cryptocurrencies have been moving sideways over the last few weeks. While Bitcoin got near 10,000 and the Fowl Five Index was briefly over 1300, the market then dipped back to the kind of levels seen in late April.
A spike in the cryptocurrency markets over the last couple weeks has run into what appears to be a round of profit-taking over the last day as some investors appear ready to cash out after a run-up that saw Bitcoin go from below $8000 to over $9000 before settling back down around $8750 as of this writing. The Fowl Five Index of cryptocurrencies moved from down below 1000 to up over 1200 before receding to around 1175 right now, its big move helped by the recent surge in price of Bitcoin Cash.